Who is Macro Thoughts?
Macro Thoughts is independently researched and produced by Keith Grindlay, drawing on his considerable experience in Fixed Income, Futures, Derivatives, Bond, Forex, Commodity and Equity Index markets and strong Global Macro investment, trading and strategy background. Extensive product knowledge across asset classes enables him to consider hedging and investment strategies that reflect expected market trends.
Since 2012, top tier global Hedge, Pension, Investment and Insurance Fund managers have benefited from Macro Thoughts’ proven insight, market commentary and investment strategies to leverage opportunities, with positive returns on over 75% of strategies. Estimated portfolio returns for 2017 YTD 9%; details can be provided and discussed.
Keith has strong analytical skills, aligned with a particular aptitude for anticipating global economic events ahead of the majority of commentators, which is globally recognised. Drawing on his extensive macroeconomic and market experience, product knowledge and independent fundamental economic research and analysis, the commentary and resultant strategies are based on the belief that economics should not be viewed simply as a set of numbers or statistics on a spreadsheet, but as a social study of accumulative trends within a society, reflecting its well-being, and taking into account production, employment, consumption, growth and inflation, etc., not as separate considerations, but as interdependent. By considering the past, analysing the present and assessing the future, Macro Thoughts takes an holistic view.
Macro Thoughts has been featured on websites such as Nutmeg.co.uk and the Society of Technical Analysts. Macro Thoughts has also been asked to contribute to several market commentaries including Hedgeweek, Wealth Adviser, Gencom, and Livesquawk.
Macro Thoughts’ track record assures exceptional results, with a service that surpasses the present model of bank-supplied, partisan research and stands out from the general contributions on platforms that your clients and peers already have access to. The support and value offered by Macro Thoughts, delivering written research and analysis, presentations and consulting services, is backed by over 25 years of hands on buy and sell side market experience and can be tailored to your specific requirements.
Themes and reports provided during 2017 have included:
December ’16 – Sub consensus US GDP forecast of 2% for Q4 and weaker for Q1 2017
US and global car sales for seriously contract in 2017
January – Risks in Europe and complacency in markets – Continued insight in European political risk and elections during 2017
Selling French 10 yr bonds 0.80% (positions held over from 2016 at 0.050%)
Buy Eur$ 1.05 straddles,
February – A sharp correction in energy commodity markets
Short WTI oil $54.50
Short Iron Ore $94
Buy AUD 5yr bonds
March – Fund Managers should not be positioned for higher yields – Prior to the Federal Reserve’s March meeting, anticipating lower US yields, curve flattening – Questioning Trumps ability to produce expansionary policies
Buy US 10yr (or 20yr) 2.63%
Buy German 10yr 0.33%
Buy GBPUSD 1.22
Sell UK 2 yr Gilts at 0.08%
April – Considering US Inflation increase as temporary – Fearing the timing of the UK election
Continue to hold March strategies
May – Recognised as being one of the first to predict global inflation peaking
Buy Bund option volatility at 3.75%
Buy EURUSD 1.11
June – Continue to expect global inflation to fall, Sterling to remain strong and BOE rate increase in 2017,
Buy Bund option volatility at 3.75%
Sell UK 2yr Gilts 0.08%
Tactical curve steepening 2y-10y
July – Growing Debt risks across Emerging Markets – Amazon day, ‘The game changer’
Buy US 5yr Treasuries 1.88%
Buy Volatility strategies targeting September- December
August – Forecast lower UK CPI (2.6%) below consensus – Overestimating the US economy – Underestimating East coast storms on global growth and oil prices
Buying GBPEUR 1.085
September – Forecast more hawkish MPC and forecast above consensus UK CPI (2.9%) – European changes after the German election, (Are the dynamics of Brexit negotiations about to change) – Warned against complacency of low global bond yields, (higher US debt issuance to come) – Kurdistan referendum risk to oil – Federal reserve discord on future rate increases (members showing doubts)
Pay UK 2yr Gilts 0.145%
As US 10yr reached 2% target, MT considered higher yields and curve steepening 5y/7yr vs 10yr/30yr (barbell strategies shorting 2yr)