From June 2013 to the end of 2015, Keith Grindlay worked with Mako Financial Markets, providing OTC Fixed Income investment strategies for Real Money Fund Managers.

Using Swaps and Swaptions for strategy investments, as well as European Bond Relative Value, consistently high profits were achieved.

In 2014, a Macro Thoughts presentation to clients was entitled, ’There is supply, but is there demand?’, a theme that is only now becoming more widely recognised. The presentation highlighted that full employment post-2008 was not made up in the same way as pre-crisis, the US had started to become more self-sufficient, impacting on the rest of the world and that it is demand, not supply that is the driver of growth.

In Macro Thoughts’ end of 2015 review, forecasts included US10year yields falling to 1.35%, as well as BOJ and RBA rate cuts. During 2016, hedging considerations included Sterling Puts referenced at 1.50, oil correcting from $48 to $40 and UK 10year Inflation Breakevens at 2.36.

Full lists of all trades recommended from mid-2013 to the end of 2015 can be viewed below.

2015
35 RATES TRADES FUTURES HEDGES
24 PROFIT PROFIT 6
3 FLAT LOSS 1
6 LOSS FLAT 1
 
 
0 FOREX TRADES
 PROFIT
 LOSS
 FLAT
   
15 RV TRADES (EUROPE)  
10 PROFIT 70
3 LOSS 10.5bp
2 OPEN / FLAT 0
   
 
RATES CLOSED POSITIONS 2015  
Rates in BP  
Profit 400.75  
Loss 35.5BP  
Futures options Tic PnL * TY RX Bund profits
Profit 41/32 OPT 14BP (X20 d)
Loss 15/32 FUT  42tics
   
Swaption in ‘c’  
Profit 160.25  
Loss 15.5  
Plus Swaption in cash  
Profit £110 / $35 $25KDV01
Loss 0